"With interest rates forecast to fall further before 2024 is done and dusted, they could be in for a far more prominent surge in market activity come 2025"
- Colby Short - GetAgent
The latest market insight by GetAgent reveals that the UK housing market is heading into 2025 on the front foot, with mortgage approvals set to peak in the first three months of the new year, and buyer demand forecast to spike in Q2.
GetAgent.co.uk has analysed historic mortgage approval and buyer demand data to reveal which time of the year the housing market is most active when it comes to buyer activity both in terms of securing a mortgage and making an offer.
Buyers enter the market to the greatest degree in Q1
The Bank of England’s mortgage approval data from the past four years (Jan 21 - Sept 24) shows that, on average, the highest number of quarterly mortgage approvals comes in the first quarter of the year.
During the first three months of the year, the average number of approvals stands at 67,564 per month over the last four years.
The second quarter of the year also sees robust numbers, averaging 66,503 approvals per month, but then Q3 tends to see a drop off with average approvals dropping to 61,398 per month before hitting a low of 56,342 per month in Q4.
Demand peaks in Q2
Additional homebuyer demand data from GetAgent covering the same time period shows that buyer demand also tends to climb during the initial stages of the year. Over the last four years, 55.4% of all homes on the market have found a buyer during Q1 - up from 52.2% in Q4.
This demand then climbs to 58.2% on average in Q2 - the highest level of quarterly demand seen throughout the year.
This growth in demand pairs with the aforementioned mortgage approval data demonstrating that the spike in mortgage approvals seen in Q1 has started to convert into offers made and accepted by the second quarter of the year.
Co-founder and CEO of GetAgent.co.uk, Colby Short, commented: “The housing market usually follows a rather predictable seasonal pattern and, when analysing buyer demand metrics in recent years, it’s clear that there tends to be a spike in mortgage approvals following the Christmas break, with this uplift in mortgage market activity converting to more offers made and accepted during the second quarter of the year.
"This means the nation’s estate agents can expect to become increasingly busy throughout the first six months of the year and it’s this market consistency that can allow them to not only plan for the year ahead but to negate the impact of a slower Q4 further down the line.
"With interest rates forecast to fall further before 2024 is done and dusted, they could be in for a far more prominent surge in market activity come 2025, which will bring further reassurance that there is light at the end of the tunnel following a challenging few years.”
