Looking at the percentage of properties for sale that are under offer or subject to contract in September 2022, PropCast has measured buyer demand by County, City and Postcode District, using the temperature metaphor to express a percentage as is often used when describing property markets. Anything over 34° indicates a hot sellers’ market where it’s easier to sell, whilst anything below suggests a cold buyers’ market where it’s harder to sell.
According to the data, all counties are still in a hot sellers' market, with Bristol leading the way with a market heat temperature of 73°. This indicates a very hot sellers’ market with 73% of homes for sale under offer or subject to contract.
Top 10 Hottest Counties in England & Wales
1: Bristol 73° - sellers' market
2: Hampshire 65° - sellers
3: Gloucestershire 64° - sellers
4: Wiltshire 64° - sellers
5: Northamptonshire 64° - sellers
6: South Yorkshire 63° - sellers
7: West Sussex 63° - sellers
8: Durham 62° - sellers
9: Somerset 62° - sellers
10: Dorset 62° - sellers
West Sussex buying agent, Jennie Hancock at Property Acquisitions, says: “Since the pandemic, the golden villages surrounding Midhurst, Petworth and Chichester have been incredibly popular, with intense competition amongst buyers causing high prices being paid. The draw is the rural and coastal lifestyle on offer, yet being in close proximity to London when needed.
"However, the tide is starting to turn away from the market being price-led and instead manoeuvring towards the ability to purchase, with those not relying on a hefty mortgage being the most desirable to vendors - cash is king now. This is because the risk of a sale falling through is minimised when selling to a cash buyer, due to down valuing or a mortgage buyer not passing their ‘stress test’.
"Cash buyers are still in West Sussex, and many of our clients have said they feel in a far stronger buying position now than at the beginning of the covid pandemic where vendors often chose the highest bidder over those who could proceed with cash.”
Caroline Ardley at Humberts Taunton, adds: “Somerset is very much a hot spot for buyers still, with some beautiful homes available from period classics to contemporary. It’s a very convenient location with easy access to major road networks, as well as Bristol and Exeter airports and mainline rail service from Taunton to London Paddington. Many of our buyers want to be close to the excellent range of schools such as and King’s and Queen’s College Taunton and Millfield.
"Somerset also has a fabulous diverse landscape and a lifestyle for country pursuits with Quantock Hills, Blackdown Hills and Exmoor to name a few, some great local pubs and restaurants as well as access to a range of shops. You can also be at the coast of West Somerset or North Devon within an hour. Despite uncertainty within the property market, it’s still very active with multiple interests and buyers still outbidding to try to secure a sale.”
Meanwhile, Gwynedd is the coldest county, with a market heat temperature of 43°, although this is still considered a hot sellers’ market. Wales accounts for half of PropCast’s Top 10 coldest counties.
Top 10 Coldest Counties in England & Wales
1: Gwynedd 43° - sellers' market
2: Dyfed 43° - sellers
3: Powys 48° - sellers
4: Lincolnshire 51° - sellers
5: Cornwall 53° - sellers
6: Isle of Wight 54° - sellers
7: Lancashire 54° - sellers
8: Herefordshire 54° - sellers
9: West Glamorgan 55° - sellers
10: Clwyd 55° - sellers
Duncan Ley at Humberts Cornwall, comments: “We are doing half of the transactions we would normally expect at this time of year, but this isn’t because Cornwall is becoming less appealing. Buyers flocked to Cornwall during the pandemic, especially second homeowners, causing a bidding frenzy for about two years. We always knew this level of activity wasn’t going to be sustainable and it started to taper off before the ‘mini budget’ even happened.
"Of course, soaring mortgage rates will be pulling on the purse strings for buyers a bit more now, but we are not finding that they’re disappearing altogether. Instead, buyers are reviewing what they can afford. For example, we have buyers who said they were looking for homes up to £900,000, but that figure is now £750,000. However, we have heard that some lenders are re-introducing mortgages which they had previously withdrawn, so we hope that may mean there are more financing options becoming available which will help the market.”
In terms of cities, all are in a hot sellers’ market. Ely tops the leader board with 73% of homes for sale are under offer or subject to contract. This indicates a very hot sellers’ market where it’s easiest to sell. Meanwhile, Salford is the least popular with buyers at 36°, and just sits in a sellers’ market.
Top five hottest cities in England & Wales
1: Ely 73°
2: Gloucester 70°
3: Plymouth 68°
4: Southampton 68°
5: Sheffield 68°
Top five coldest cities in England & Wales
1: Salford 36°
2: St Asaph (Llanelwy) 41°
3: Bangor 44°
4: Wells 47°
5: Chichester 49°
West Sussex buying agent, Jennie Hancock, continues: “Chichester is a pretty hard city to beat due to its culture, heritage, transport links and amenities. However, just like elsewhere in the UK, buyers have prioritised greenery and space in the countryside over urban, and Chichester’s surrounding rural and coastal villages have become very popular since the pandemic began.
"However, the appeal is still there for many, and a drop in buyer demand can only be a good thing when it comes to buying a property here. Lower demand means less competition from other bidders, so purchasers should find that they won’t have to pay as much for an area that last summer was found to be one of the least affordable cities to buy a property.
"There’s a lot of investment happening in Chichester too with various businesses moving in that appeal to all generations such as The Ivy, whilst many of the empty commercial properties are being turned into residential dwellings. This all means now could well be a very good time to be buying a home as no doubt this will all help increase house prices in the future.”
When analysing postcode districts, PropCast found that 96% of postcode districts are in a hot sellers’ market. Bristol features in four of the top ten rankings, which includes a first place at 83°. Other Bristol postcode districts include BS15, BS30 and BS6.
Top 10 Hottest Postcode Districts in England & Wales (all sellers' markets)
1: BS7 (Bishopston/ Horfield/ Lockleaze/ Ashley down/ Filton - Bristol) 83°
2: RG22 (South Ham/ Brighton Hill/ Kempshott/ Beggarwood - Basingstoke) 82°
3: MK12 (Milton Keynes) 81°
4: LS7 (Leeds) 81°
5: CV21 (Rugby (north)/ Brownsover) 80°
6: BS15 (Hanham/ Kingswood/ - Bristol) 80°
7: BS30 (Bitton/ Longwell Green/ Cadbury Heath/ Oldland Common/ Warmley/ Wick - Bristol) 80°
8: BA16 (Street/ Walton - Somerset) 80°
9: SN25 (Swindon outer north suburbs) 80°
10: BS6 (Cotham/ Redland/ Montpelier/ Westbury Park/ St Andrew's - Bristol) 79°
Whilst 4% of postcode districts are in a cold buyers’ market where it’s harder to sell, with London, Liverpool and Wales making a regular appearance.
Top 10 Coldest Postcode Districts in England & Wales (all buyers' markets)
1: M2 (Manchester city centre / Deansgate) 3°
2: B4 (Birmingham City Centre) 5°
3: W1 (Soho/ Mayfair/ Marylebone/ Fitzrovia) 10°
4: LL78 (Brynteg - Isle of Anglesey) 10°
5: EC2 (Shoreditch/ Broadgate/ Guildhall/ Barbican) 13°
6: L2 (Liverpool City Centre) 13°
7: SA36 (Glogue/ Hermon - Pembrokeshire) 13°
8: LL67 (Cemaes Bay/ Tregele - Isle of Anglesey) 14°
9: L1 (Liverpool City Centre) 14°
10: LL43 (Talybont - Gwynedd) 15°
Gavin Brazg, Founder of PropCast, said: “Although a lot of the UK is still in a sellers' market, we are seeing big drops in demand, pushing those locations further towards a buyers' market. More properties are also coming to market. This re-balance means the balance of power is slowly shifting towards buyers, which will mean house prices will stabilise and potentially even fall.
"This means it's more important than ever before for sellers to remain realistic about what their home is worth, and choose a good local estate agent who will implement an optimal pricing and marketing strategy. Otherwise, they will find their home will struggle to sell. Whilst for buyers, they may be able to negotiate on price a bit more - something that hasn't really been possible over the last two and half years. This can help ease the burden of increased mortgage repayments, as can any stamp duty saving.
"However, demand is still out there, so buyers need to make sure they are ready to move when they're making their offer. This means having the funds organised, solicitors appointed and all the paperwork in place.”
