"If ministers continue with the proposals to rid the planning system of targets and consequences, no matter how it is packaged, it will result in fewer new homes and represents another victory for NIMBY backbenchers"
- Stewart Baseley - HBF
The Housing Pipeline Report for Q3 2023, compiled by Glenigan, reveals that 2,447 projects were granted planning permission. This was down 3% on the previous quarter and a 19% decline on the same period last year.
And the number of housing units achieving consent in England during quarter three of this year fell 12% on Q2 to 50,316, which was a 28% fall against Q3 2022. Meanwhile, the number of units gaining planning permission during the year to September 2023 was 245,872, representing a 15% year-on-year drop and the lowest 12-month number since Q3 2015.
According to HBF, as planning permissions are a lead indicator of future supply levels, the latest figures confirmed industry warnings throughout the year that “an increasingly anti-development policy environment and worsening economy” would cause the number of homes built in upcoming years to fall to “record” low levels.
It is anticipated that the government will go ahead with dropping mandatory housing targets, making them advisory, following pressure from backbench Conservative MPs a year ago. The expected changes, HBF said, would “inevitably lead to a further decline in planning permission approvals in the months and years ahead and might see housebuilding in some areas completely collapse”.
Earlier this year, consultancy Lichfields predicted through its research that the government’s proposed NPPF revisions would cause a fall of 77,000 homes a year. HBF also noted the more than 60 councils that had stopped production of local plans following the government’s intentions to dilute local authorities’ housing requirements.
It also noted the further exacerbating effect of the unresolved nutrient issue. Research from consultancy Brookbanks published in November showed that newly built homes produce only 0.29% of total nitrogen emissions each year, but 150,000 homes are being delayed by Natural England stipulations.
Stewart Baseley, HBF’s executive chairman, said: “This is the inevitable outcome of several years of anti-growth policy and rhetoric.
"Businesses have warned for some time that the impact of government action would be severe but now there is a mounting body of evidence.
"If ministers continue with the proposals to rid the planning system of targets and consequences, no matter how it is packaged, it will result in fewer new homes and represents another victory for NIMBY backbenchers.
"Putting politics and party management above the interests of those households struggling amidst a worsening housing crisis may seem attractive in the short-term but the long-term consequences for the economy and society are horrendous."
