"In the year that followed [the Mini Budget], we saw mortgage approvals, transactions and house prices all take a downward turn, as market confidence dwindled in the face of strong economic headwinds"
- Guy Gittins - Foxtons
The latest market insight from Foxtons has revealed that with the Autumn Statement on the horizon, the property market is still feeling the impact two years on from the disastrous Truss Mini Budget.
However, there are plenty of signs of positivity regarding both buyer activity levels and house prices.
The research by Foxtons analysed house price growth, transaction volumes and mortgage approval levels in the 12 months leading up to the Mini Budget, the year that followed, and over the last year, to reveal what impact it had and how the market stands today.
The research shows that in the 12 months leading up to the Mini Budget (September 2021 to August 2022), there were 821,892 total mortgage approvals seen across the UK property market.
A total of 1,277,320 property transactions also took place during this period, with the average UK house price increasing by 8.3%.
However, in the 12 months that followed (September 2022 to August 2023) the total number of mortgage approvals seen fell to 593,394 - a drop of 27.8%.
Transactional volumes also dropped by 13.3% to 1,107,720 and, as a result of this reduced level of market activity, the average UK house price fell by 1.8%.
The negative impact of the mini budget on the property market is still apparent today, as over the last 11 months (September 2023 to July 2024 - latest available), just 941,300 transactions have been completed across the UK.
However, despite the market still bearing scars caused by the Mini Budget, plenty of signs of property market positivity have emerged over the last year.
Buyers are returning to the market in confidence, spurred by greater certainty due to a hold on interest rates since August of last year, with the first base rate reduction in four years seen this August just gone, further boosting market sentiment.
As a result, the total number of mortgage approvals seen over the last 11 months sits at 617,266, a 4% increase on the 12 months that followed the Mini Budget, albeit still some way off the pace of the market seen in the 12 months leading up to it.
What’s more, the average UK house price has increased by 2.3% over the last 11 months alone, versus the 1.8% decline seen in the 12 months that followed the Mini Budget.
Foxtons CEO, Guy Gittins, commented: “The notorious 2022 Mini Budget will go down in the history books, and there’s no denying the immediate and negative impact it had on both the UK property market and the wider economy.
"In the year that followed we saw mortgage approvals, transactions and house prices all take a downward turn, as market confidence dwindled in the face of strong economic headwinds.
"However, 2024 has been a story of property market positivity and we’ve seen more buyers returning to the market, more offers being made and accepted, and the prices being achieved also starting to climb.
"Of course, we’ve got some way to go yet before the property market makes a full return to pre-Mini Budget health, but current indicators suggest we’re heading firmly in the right direction.
"Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like our new Labour government has any plans to help hasten this return to form in the upcoming Autumn Statement, with no suggestions of any homebuyer incentives emerging as of yet.”
