"Our analysis paints a pretty bleak picture as it underlines the extent to which minimum local housing needs are not being planned for or delivered nationally, and the challenge that the country faces in responding to the deepening housing crisis"
- Neil Tiley - Pegasus Group.
Development consultancy, Pegasus Group, has published data revealing that almost two-thirds of Local Planning Authorities outside of London are likely to find that once they update their housing land supply assessments in line with the Government’s recent guidance, the most important policies will be out-of-date.
This is either a result of an insufficient supply of housing being identified to address requirements over the next five years, or substantially fewer homes having been delivered than required over the preceding three years. The data collated by Pegasus Group in March found that:
- Only about 40% of LPAs outside of London have updated their housing land supply assessments to take account of recent changes to national planning policy, including the new methodology for calculating housing need and the requirement to apply a buffer
- 65% of LPAs are likely to have an insufficient supply of housing to meet minimum requirements over the next five years, and this rises to 66% including those LPAs with a record of substantial under-delivery of housing
These issues are particularly pronounced across the West Midlands, South East and South West
The recently revised NPPF maintains the requirement to consider development proposals more favourably where development plan policies are out-of-date. However, it changes the way in which the sufficiency of housing supply is assessed. This includes identifying housing needs using a different methodology and through the requirement to apply a buffer to ensure choice and competition in the market.
The analysis of Pegasus Group suggests that the most important development plan policies are out-of-date and the presumption in favour of sustainable development will be engaged in 66% of the LPAs outside of London. This is particularly pronounced in the West Midlands, the South East and the South West, where the presumption in favour of sustainable development is estimated to be engaged in 83%, 81% and 74% of LPAs respectively.
While the news may be welcomed by developers in the short term, it highlights both the disparity between the levels of housing being delivered compared to that which is required to support the government’s growth agenda, and the desperate need for housing to come forward to address this disparity.
“Our analysis paints a pretty bleak picture as it underlines the extent to which minimum local housing needs are not being planned for or delivered nationally, and the challenge that the country faces in responding to the deepening housing crisis," explained Neil Tiley, Senior Director of Economics at Pegasus Group.
He added, “To support the national growth agenda and meet the housing needs of communities which have not been addressed for decades, there is a desperate need to bring forward more housing, as supported by the recent changes to national policy.
"Notwithstanding this it will be very challenging to release a sufficient supply of housing to fully address housing needs. In order to do so, new development plans will need to be prepared and adopted to fully meet housing needs, but in the interim, housing will need to be approved notwithstanding a conflict with existing out-of-date development plans.”
