Property transactions see 'significant annual growth' of 32.9%

According to the latest HMRC residential property statistics, UK transactions edged up by 7.2% between June and July to 110,970 sales, recording an annual rise of 32.9%.

Related topics:  Finance
Amy Loddington
23rd August 2022
wooden blocks with arrows, pointing upwards

On a seasonally adjusted basis, transactions totalled 104,470 - up 3.2% from June and 36.7% higher than in July 2021.

In June, residential transactions totalled 96,290, down 55.1% compared with last year and 3.1% lower than the previous month.

Anna Clare Harper, director of real estate technology platform IMMO, says:

"Housing transactions indicate demand and how easy it is for people who want to, to buy and sell. They are also important because transactions drive house prices. House prices are often used as an indication of how well the economy is doing.

"The significant annual growth in transactions reflects the influence of policy and lockdowns, the last of which ended in July 2021. As a result, it is unsurprising that, with the benefit of temporary stamp duty relief for part of that period, and the absence of lockdowns, transactions have recovered in the last year.

"Going forward, the flow of ‘essential’ transactions, where a homeowner needs to move, are likely to continue. Non-essential transactions, for example where a property owner owns more than one property, or does not need to downsize, upsize or move, may slow down without the incentive of the temporary stamp duty reduction, and with higher mortgage finance costs due to interest rate rises.

"The trouble with this is that fewer transactions mean households have less flexibility. We are already seeing worsening shortages in rental housing force rents up, and the same is happening in the less flexible market for owned property, although the pace of house price growth is likely to slow."

Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, says:

"As always, property transactions are a better barometer of market strength than more volatile prices. However, these figures, though positive, reflect what was happening several months ago since when the market has moved on.

"On the ground, we are finding demand is still there but concerns about the rising cost of living and interest rates are prompting a more cautious approach which is reducing numbers and increasing the length and reducing the number of sales.

"On the plus side, sales agreed are maintaining their levels with buyers and sellers negotiating harder to ensure their move can get over the line."

Simon McCulloch, Chief Commercial & Growth Officer at Smoove said:

"It seems the traditional summer slowdown has not had an impact on today’s HMRC figures. However, a year-on-year comparison should be treated with caution as the stamp duty holiday was reduced from £500,000 to £250,000 on 1 July 2021, hence what has likely caused these figures to appear nearly 40% higher. However, on a monthly basis, transactions increased by 3.2%. Transaction volumes remain healthy, yet the big unknown is around how affordability constraints might impact property transaction volumes going forward. While supply remains constrained, it is possible that house prices will continue to defy gravity, albeit, perhaps, growing at a slower rate, despite affordability challenges. The next few months of housing data will bring us clearer answers."

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