Average UK house price annual inflation was 2.9% in the 12 months to September 2024, up from the revised estimate of 2.7% in the 12 months to August 2024.
The average UK house price was £292,000 in September 2024 - £8,000 higher than 12 months ago. Average house prices in the 12 months to September 2024 increased in England to £309,000 (2.5%), increased in Wales to £217,000 (0.4%) and increased in Scotland to £198,000 (5.7%). The average house price increased in the year to Q3 (Jul to Sep) 2024 to £191,000 in Northern Ireland (6.2%).
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, average UK house prices decreased by 0.3% between August 2024 and September 2024 compared with a decrease of 0.5% in the same period 12 months ago. On a seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in the UK decreased by 0.1% between August 2024 and September 2024.
Of English regions, annual house price inflation was highest in the North East, where prices increased by 6.5% in the 12 months to September 2024. London was the English region with the lowest annual inflation, where prices decreased by 0.5% in the 12 months to September 2024.
Emma Cox, MD of Real Estate at Shawbrook, commented: “House prices continued to rise year-on-year in October despite heightened uncertainty in the lead-up to the budget. Buyers and sellers acted swiftly to try and conclude deal activity prior to any potential government announcements and ahead of the usual winter slowdown, however, property prices did see a slight dip in comparison to last month.
“Many will be keeping a close eye on how the market reacts following the Chancellor’s announcements. The decision not to extend stamp duty relief for first-time buyers, while likely to give a short-term boost to activity levels, could mean a longer-term slowdown in the market. First-time buyers make up the majority of new build purchases, so removing key incentives will likely be counterproductive to reaching the Government's ambitious house-building targets.
“This could, however, lead to further increases in rental demand - which is still far outweighing the supply of quality stock. Professional landlords have an important role to play in addressing this issue, and many may view this as an opportunity to add to their portfolios and capitalise on rising demand.”
Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients, says: “With inflation rising to 2.3 per cent, the Bank of England could well be cautious at next month’s meeting and press the hold button rather than cut base rate further.
“Further rate reductions are more likely next year than this one, with Swap rates rising on the back of today’s inflation figures. However, while inflation rose more than expected, it’s still only just above the 2 per cent target and fluctuations are not unexpected.
“Mortgage rates have risen in recent weeks on the back of higher Swap rates, with no sub-4 per cent fixed rates now on offer. That said, fixes are pegged only just above this level so borrowers should not panic. As always, plan ahead as much as possible and seek advice from a whole-of-market broker."
Amy Reynolds, head of sales at Richmond estate agency Antony Roberts, says: “With house prices holding fairly steady and sellers more realistic about pricing, it could be the nudge buyers need to act. In saying that, mortgage rates remain high and that will impact buyers’ decisions, perhaps deciding to wait until they come down again. However, first-time buyers don’t have the luxury of delaying a move as they could potentially save thousands of pounds in stamp duty if they transact before 31 March.
“As we head towards the end of the year, we expect lower transaction levels due to affordability pressures and buyers taking longer to commit. The exodus of landlords, driven by tax and regulatory changes, has dampened activity in the buy-to-let sector, impacting overall market turnover.
“In areas where stock is limited, markets will have remained steady, particularly the family home market with work-from-home potential. Homes that are well priced and well presented in the Richmond Borough are still selling relatively quickly and the same will likely be the case in other desirable parts of the country."
Tomer Aboody, director of specialist lender MT Finance, says: “We are seeing lower sales volumes in England which in turn are pushing buyers to pay slightly higher prices, and increasing the national average property value.
“Although transaction volumes are lower than in the past, they're rising as rates are reducing or holding at reasonable levels, offering buyers more affordable finance options.
“With the Budget behind us and no help or push from the Government, any hope of assistance in the future is dwindling although the market is still hopeful of a further interest rate reduction, which will provide a boost.”
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, says: “At first glance, these figures show the housing market to be demonstrating continuing resilience. However, while this is the most comprehensive of all the price surveys as it includes cash and mortgaged transactions, it reflects buyer and seller decision-making from a few months ago at least.
“On the ground since, we have had to contend with worries about the Budget and then its fallout. The result has been more caution and heavier negotiation over available properties, despite the recent drop in mortgage rates.
“Worries remain about the pace of further falls in rates and increases in inflation as buyers want to ensure they have a sufficient buffer against potentially rising costs."
