House prices get off to a 'rocky start' in 2018 with a 0.3% drop

This morning's UK House Price Index from the ONS and Land Registry has revealed a 'predictably' slow start to the year with a fall of 0.3%. The data confirmed a more substantial 0.5% drop was felt in England.

Related topics:  Property
Warren Lewis
20th March 2018
house stats
"Those buyers and sellers that are still sat on the sideline waiting for the impact of Brexit to hit, or for their property to regain the marginal value it may have dropped, may want to reconsider their position on the fence"

According to the report, annual house price growth slowed from 5.0% in December last year to 4.9% in January 2018. However, it has remained around 5% since 2017.

The East Midlands showed the highest annual growth, with prices increasing by 7.3% in the year to January. This was followed by the South West at 6.9% and the West Midlands and East of England (both 5.3%). The lowest annual growth was in the North East, where prices increased by 0.7% over the year, followed by London at 2.1%.

The local authorities with the largest annual growth are largely in Scotland with the Orkney Islands, East Lothian and West Lothian placing the highest. The Orkney Islands have also enjoyed some of the largest growth so far in 2018, second to Kensington and Chelsea.

Russell Quirk, founder and CEO of online estste agent, Emoov, had this to say: “A predictably slow start to the year and one that will subside as a larger degree of activity returns to the market over the coming months.

This lethargic start will no doubt be welcomed by those who have persistently talked the market down, using a slow in house price growth to add further fuel to the flames of a shambolic Brexit process. But while we have seen occasional and marginal declines in house price growth over the last year, the market remains in pretty good health considering.

As we drift closer to our European divorce an inadequate level of suitable housing stock to satisfy even a reduced level of buyer demand, will see prices remain stimulated regardless of any wider external influences.

Those buyers and sellers that are still sat on the sideline waiting for the impact of Brexit to hit, or for their property to regain the marginal value it may have dropped, may want to reconsider their position on the fence. Remaining there for too long will result in nothing but splinters as the rest of the market goes about its business as usual.”

John Goodall, CEO and Co-Founder of buy to let specialist Landbay said: “House prices got off to a rocky start in 2018. Despite record low mortgage rates remaining largely unchanged since the rate rise, and November’s stamp duty reforms said to have already benefited 60,000 first time buyers, owning a property remains out of reach for many aspiring homeowners looking to get their foot on the housing ladder.

If that’s how many have benefited from the stamp duty reforms already, there is no doubt that house prices will soon be back on the rise. The Chancellor’s commitment in the Spring Statement to build more affordable homes is welcome, but this needs to stop being put forward as the only solution.

Encouraging institutional investment in large scale developments, specifically designed to rent rather than buy, will help to control house price growth while also improving living standards for the thousands still relying on the buy-to-let market.”

Jeff Knight, Director of Marketing at Foundation Home Loans, commented: “Despite predictions interest rates will double this year and ongoing political uncertainty delaying potential sellers, on the surface it seems like prices are holding. Yes, London prices may be cooling and The Chancellor’s latest figures suggested some 60,000 first-time buyers have now avoided paying stamp duty, but that doesn’t change the fact we are facing a continued lack of property available for sale. Not only is this another hurdle for younger buyers, but ‘second-steppers’ looking to upgrade their homes are being met with sky-high prices and limited choice.

A call on developers to build and councils to release land will help, but ultimately we need the supply gap to be sorted sooner rather than later.”

Paul Osborn, Chief Executive for Foresters Friendly Society, said: “For most households, achieving home ownership is not just a top saving priority but the ultimate goal. However, sky high prices, limited choice and competition to secure mortgage finances can often leave first-time buyers wondering if they will ever be able to attain the dream of home ownership.”

Getting your financial know-how sorted on the savings products available early on can really help maximise your savings potential when you need it most.

With a 25% boost to annual savings, younger savers who take-up the Lifetime ISA can bring that goal closer by saving useful amounts towards a home deposit.”

Jeremy Leaf, North London estate agent and former RICS residential chairman, added: "We have found house prices to be rather volatile over the past few months - up a bit, then down a bit. On the one hand, they have been supported by low interest rates and shortage of stock but on the other compromised by squeezed affordability and Brexit uncertainty.

No region reflects this pattern more than London, which is showing again that price rises are lagging behind most of the rest of the country, mainly due to previous overheating and now availability of more stock.

Successful sellers are the ones who are recognising the new market realities. Property needs to stand out one way or another to gain attention."

Owen Woodley, Chief Executive, Financial Services at Post Office, comments: “Although we are continuing to see a slowdown of house price growth, prices are still inflated in many areas and 63 per cent of people think the market is overvalued. Despite the challenging market, buyers looking to take their first steps on the property ladder can turn the uncertainty into opportunity. First-time buyers often have a better negotiating position than house movers, and can still benefit from low interest rates.”

John Eastgate, Sales and Marketing Director at OneSavings Bank, had this to say: “The uptick in property price growth has softened in recent months, especially in London where the slowdown has had a disproportionate impact on the national picture. However the mortgage market remains steady and growth is expected to continue along a modest path this year.

With the end of the Term Funding Scheme, a possible May interest rate increase and absence of wage inflation, affordability will continue to be a challenge for potential home buyers.”

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